United States: After the recent victory of Donald Trump, online betting sites are expected to pay out around $ 450m to those who staked on Trump. Yet, some bettors have been able to experience significant issues in terms of receiving their winnings on time, as reported by Reuters.
Prediction Markets Beat Polls on Election Outcome
Several online betting sites, often referred to as “prediction markets,” launched shortly before the election and attracted a large volume of bets on Trump. Unlike opinion polls, which showed a tight race, prediction markets favored Trump as they capture real-time crowd sentiment, according to Princeton Professor Samuel S.-H. Wang. “Prediction markets can capture crowd wisdom when data is lacking,” Wang explained. After the election, these markets proved more accurate than traditional polling, tracking last-minute shifts and news that can significantly influence campaigns.
Kalshi and Polymarket See Big Action
Kalshi, a platform aimed at U.S. residents, recorded about 40,000 bets on Trump, compared to 28,000 on Harris. Payouts were projected at $159 million. Meanwhile, Polymarket, a crypto-based site targeting international users, is expected to pay out around $287 million. Unlike traditional betting houses, prediction markets allow users to trade “shares” based on election outcomes, reflecting collective wisdom over time.
Biggest Payouts Expected for ‘Polymarket Whale’
A Paris-based investor known as the “Polymarket whale” is set to collect the platform’s largest payout, having placed $40 million in Trump-related bets. If Trump also secures the popular vote, this bettor could double their payout to $80 million.
Investors Bet on Prediction Markets for Future Elections
With support from Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi saw billions of dollars wagered, especially as Trump’s odds strengthened. Koleman Strumpf, a political economy expert at Wake Forest University, noted the rise of prediction markets as a potentially more reliable forecast tool than traditional polling, as reported by Reuters.
Betting Continues Until Inauguration
On platforms like Kalshi, bets will stay open until Inauguration Day, January 20, 2025. Bettors hope the unprecedented success of prediction markets over polls will shape election forecasting in the future.